Finding Opportunity in Crisis

Merit Smith
Vice President and Health Care Practice Director

First, the bad news. It is an old myth that the Chinese word weiji (危機 translated as "crisis") is made up of two characters—one meaning danger, the other opportunity. JFK employed this myth routinely in his speeches, and it was then appropriated by Richard M. Nixon and others. The usage has been adopted by business consultants and motivational speakers and has gained great popularity in universities and in the popular press. For example, in 2007, Condoleezza Rice repeated the misunderstanding during Middle East peace talks; Al Gore did so in testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee, and in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech. I am a little befuddled why speech writers don't check Snopes.com before adding such quotes—Kennedy and Nixon excused.

The good news: there is a reason this myth is so pervasive and persistent. It goes beyond the drama of the two symbols and a western bias for inspirational oriental wisdom. It is appealing for a very simple reason—most people believe it to be fundamentally true that there is opportunity in a crisis. There is sufficient statistical and anecdotal evidence that this is true. Emerging markets generate more millionaires per year as a percent of their population than established markets. Industrial market segment leadership change is its greatest during periods of turmoil. Those of us who are parents know that kids most likely get approval to have a sleep over on a school night when the mother and father are in a heated debate about a home renovation project. But more relevant to this current economic crisis, think about the following:

• Consider the crises and opportunities of the Tampa-based Medicare Advantage plan, MD Choice. This financially struggling plan invests required reserves in the Reserve Primary Fund. Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy impairs the value of Reserve Primary Fund. The SEC blocks access to the fund. The HMO cannot access their reserves to pay health care benefits. The Florida Department of Regulation seizes the plan and within a day 17,000 seniors are covered by Humana. The crisis ends with Humana gaining a $100 million business.
  
  

• A friend's 16-year-old son just got his drivers license so he had the pleasure of getting auto insurance quotes. His agent started the conversation by saying, "If you want to get this done quickly we will be eliminating some of the top-end insurers." He said, "Companies like XYZ and ABC are swamped right now and it can take 8 to 10 weeks to get a quote." My friend did some quick research at home on the named companies and guess what he found? XYZ and ABC had also, in their own unique ways, gone to the market with a solid message that allayed fears and attracted those that wanted to move to the safety of an organization they knew would be there.
  
  

• The President and CEO of one of our clients is spending a large part of every day encouraging each and every segment of the business to stay focused, find the opportunities, and exploit them. He said to me, "Some part of our competition is losing focus and seeing the fear. There are obstacles but probably no greater opportunity to capture profitable market share than in this crisis."