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Slow Down or Speed Up?
The economy
seems to be front and center in most people's minds these days. The
consensus is that most sectors of the American economy will slow
down this year. Smart businesspeople, though, will look for
opportunities in an economic slowdown and act accordingly. They
don't play only when the sun is shining. Some careful reprioritizing
and planning now may pay off handsomely in the future with increased
market share, lower costs, stronger presence, higher profits, or
some combination of these things. For some, merely riding out the
storm will be good enough. But those management teams who seek the
opportunities in an economic downturn and are willing to plan a lot
and invest a little may emerge as industry leaders when the
inevitable upturn comes.
Recognition and Planning Economic downturns
are rarely forecasted and budgeted. No one is sure of the extent and
length of a downturn in advance. However, once a downturn is
evident, management teams should have a disciplined method to plan
activity at a high level. At the very least, new quarterly budgets
should be created with best case, worst case, and expected case
performance criteria. A capital plan and a key activity plan should
be developed that reprioritizes the entity's operations to make the
best of the downturn.
Each department in a company performs dozens of important
tasks every day. The key in a downturn is to understand what is
essential. Separate the important from the essential, and perhaps
put the important on the back burner in order to make sure that the
essential tasks are executed as perfectly and efficiently as
possible. For example, is that new IT system essential or important?
Is building a new headquarters essential or important? My bet is
that your list of essential activities will be much shorter than
your list of important activities, which will give you the clarity
to focus and develop the core of the business.
Current activities should be reviewed for fit in the downturn
model. Should this activity be delayed or accelerated? Should that
acquisition go forward or stop? Is there a market that we can target
that was impossible before the downturn? Which competitors are the
fastest-growing, and which are economically strongest? Can we
leverage ourselves ahead of them in selected markets?
People News of an economic downturn strikes
fear in the hearts of most employees. The best management teams
address employees' concerns about job security and the welfare of
the company on an ongoing basis, and especially during slow times.
Fearful employees are not focused on the customer; they may cut
corners or begin to look for more stable employment. Keeping
everyone watching the ball is critical during hard economic times. A
carefully planned communication effort will help lower the anxiety
of front line personnel and will help in getting their buy-in for
activities that may not be the norm.
People-related opportunities abound in an economic downturn.
Some companies will announce layoffs, some will offer early
retirement, some will go out of business. College graduates will be
looking very hard for employment. All of these activities release
talent to the job market—talent that is not available when times are
good or may not normally be available. Considering the competitive
environment for talent, "skilling up" and retaining key employees
should be top priorities. Companies who do not do this may find
themselves too far behind in the talent war to progress in their
industry after the downturn.
Keeping
Key Suppliers and Accounts Tough times strain business
relationships, and long- term relationships are more easily
overturned when suppliers and customers shift to survival mode.
Desperation may supplant rationality for a longstanding customer who
has just been offered a short-term discount or a cheaper product
with fewer benefits or features. A smart management team will be out
in front of this thinking, continually working with key accounts and
suppliers to prevent attrition. A carefully worded message that is
linked to the new circumstances and the company's plan to meet those
circumstances should be repeated to important customers and
suppliers, just as it is to employees.
Process
Improvement While times are good, companies focus on
sales volume and new product launches, with efficiency and cost
control distant seconds. In a downturn, the order is flipped. Plan
to use the time to evaluate processes and efficiency. Write down the
firm's ten most essential activities, and begin a careful review of
them from a process and efficiency standpoint. Scrutinize outsourced
functions for potential in-sourcing. The front line can tell you
what is needed and what is not, and how a process can be improved.
And in some cases, technology can help eliminate backlogs or improve
distribution channels.
The Robert E. Nolan Company has extensive experience in
assisting companies through downturns and upturns. Our 35-year
history of process improvement, strategic planning, mergers and
acquisitions, and IT and capability management assistance
encompasses many clients that are now household names. We would be
pleased to come to you to discuss how we can help your company pull
through the downturn with strength and viability.
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